House Elections Overview Part 1

Note- I will give detailed analyses of competitive races in a later post.  This is just a general overview

Alabama – Districts 1-6 are safe Republican; 7 is safe Democrat

Alaska – At Large District is safe Republican

Arizona – Districts 4, 5, 6 and 8 are safe Republican.  Districts 3 and 7 are safe Democrat.  District 9leans Democratic.   while 1 and 2 are tossups.

Arkansas – Districts 1 and 3 are safe Republican.  2  and 4 are likely Republican

California – Districts 1, 4, 8, 10, 21, 22, 23, 25, 39, 42, 45, 48, 49 and 50 are safe Republican.  Districts 2, 3, 5, 6, 9, 11 – 20, 24, 27 – 30, 32 -35, 37, 38, 40, 41, 43, 44, 46, 47, 51 and 53 are safe Democratic.  District 31 is Likely Democratic.  7, 26 and 36 are leans Democratic.  52 is the only tossup race in California.

Colorado – Districts 3, 4 and 5 are safe Republican.  Districts 1,2 and 7 are safe Democratic.  District 6 is a tossup.

Connecticut – All five districts are safe Democratic.

Delaware – The at-large seat is safe Democratic

Florida – Districts 1, 3, 4, 6-8, 11-13, 15-17, 19, 25 and 27 are safe Republican.  Seats 5, 9, 14, 20 -24 are safe Democratic.  District 2 is likely Republican. Districts 18 and 26 are leans Democratic.

Georgia – Districts 1, 3, 6-11 and 14 are safe Republican.  Districts 2, 4, 5 and 13 are safe Democratic.  District 12 is a tossup.

Hawaii – Districts 2 is safe Democratic. District 1 is Likely Democratic.

Idaho- Both seats are safe Republican

Illinois – Districts 6, 14-16 and 18 are safe Republican.  Districts 1-5, 7-9 are safe Democratic.  Districts 10-12 and 17 are Likely Democratic. District 13 is a tossup.

Indiana – Districts 2-6, 8 and 9 are safe Republican.  Districts 1 and 7 are safe Democratic.

Iowa – Districts 1 and 2 are Safe Democratic. District 4 is Likely Republican. District 5 is a tossup.

What is a Person?

I will soon be posting a list of words that have been distorted by Americans over the past decade or so.  As a writer, I think it is important to return to the meaning of words.  Putting it simply, words matter.  When we change the meaning of words, we change our whole language and suddenly nothing means what it is supposed to mean.

I think the word “person” has become convoluted that it needs its own post to explain.  I could look up the definition online or in a dictionary, which would be sad and pathetic.  I don’t need something to tell me a person is, but, unfortunately, other people do.  The Supreme Court seems to think that inanimate objects (corporations) are not only people, but have unalienable rights that trounce those of actual human beings.  Let’s be clear: Corporations and other inanimate objects are not people.  A Hobby Lobby store cannot declare a religion, nor does it have the physical means to expression its religious freedom.  Therefore it cannot be a person because people can act freely on their own without the need of assistance.  Hobby Lobby CEO is a person because he can do just that as well as other things such as eat and expel waste.  In fact, the definition of an organism states that organisms much respond to stimuli, reproduce and grow.  Hobby Lobby cannot do any of things naturally, so it does not even qualify for an organism, much less a person.

A fetus is also not a person.  A fetus cannot live outside of the womb until a certain period of time.  It cannot feel pain until a certain period of time.  For at least the first trimester plus, the “baby” is really nothing more than an ugly cluster of cells that do nothing except for divide.  And the woman carrying said fetus is certainly more of a person than whatever cells are inside of her.

You know what is a person?  The undocumented immigrant coming to America in search of a better life who is ridiculed.  The gay man or lesbian who wants equal rights and is demonized for standing up for his or herself.  The woman who feels insecure about her abilities to carry a child to full term, never mind raise one, who is harassed by angry protestors for seeking an abortion.  Why can’t the Supreme Court stand up for the rights of these people who are actually living, breathing human beings with constitutional rights?  Why do five justices continue to extend rights that are, in practice, denied to actual humans to inanimate objects?

Senate Elections Overview

 

I absolutely love election season.  The fights, the campaigns, the crazy gaffes, but mostly analysis.  I frequently read other, more well established commentators, and disagree on some of what they say.

Alabama – Safe Republican – I believe current Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) is the only person running.

Alaska – Leans Democratic – Incumbent Sen. Mark Begich (D) is in a tough race in a Republican state.  However, front runners for the Republican nomination, Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell and former Alaska Attorney General Dan Sullivan, are rather lackluster and polling slightly favors Begich.  Joe Miller, crazy tea partier, does not seem likely to win the nomination.  Most outlets rate this race as a tossup.

Arkansas – Tossup – Incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor (D) did not face a Republican in 2008, but this time around freshman Rep. Tom Cotton (R) is running neck and neck with him in the polls.  Arkansas is increasingly a Republican state, which would favor Cotton, but the two keep flip-flopping the lead in polls.  Cotton is quite a firecracker and has proposed quite extreme laws such as one that would law enforcement to arrest the family of anyone accused of dealing with Iran.

Colorado – Leans Democratic – Colorado is spazzy with polling.  One week the Democrats are unpopular, the next they are very popular.  Either way Incumbent Sen. Mark Udall usually holds small leads over Rep. Cory Gardner (R).  It will likely be close, but evidence suggests Udall will pull through.

Delaware – Safe Democratic – Sen. Chris Coons (D) will face off against one of two unknown Republicans in this blue state.

Georgia – Tossup – Republicans got their wish granted when Rep. Jack Kingston and businessman David Perdue advanced to the runoff instead of someone the more (let’s call them) radical candidates.  Democrats are running Michelle Nunn, daughter of a popular former senator.  Polling favors Nunn, but Georgia is a red state without a Republican candidate yet.  Most outlets rate this as Leans Republican

Hawaii – Safe Democrat ic– Whether or not Sen. Brian Schatz (and it looks like he will) wins the Democratic nomination or Rep. Colleen Hanabusa does, this seat is safe blue in the special election.

Idaho – Safe Republican – Absolutely nothing exciting here as Sen. Jim Risch (R) will trounce Nels Mitchell (whoever that is) November.

Illinois – Safe Democratic – Again nothing exciting.  Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D) will handily smash Jim Oberweis (whoever that is) in November.

Iowa – Leans Democratic – Rep. Bruce Braley (D) holds slight leads over hog castrator and state senator Joni Ernst (R).  Iowa likes to split congressional delegations 50/50 and with a Republican in the other seat, Braley has the edge, despite his gaffes.  Joni Ernst is relatively unknown and appears to be a hair too conservative for swingy Iowa.

Kansas – Safe Republican – Kansas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since the Great Depression and unless Sen. Pat Roberts (R) loses his primary to Milton Wolf (unlikely) and Democrat Chad Taylor has a magic lamp, it will remain that way.

Kentucky – Tossup – Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) has the dubious honor of being the nation’s least liked senator, according to a PPP poll.  Still Kentucky is conservative and Democrat Kentucky Secretary of State Allison Lundergan Grimes is hobnobbing with Democrats, McConnell should be favored.  However, only notoriously unreliable Republican polling has shown McConnell with a lead, while everyone else shows Grimes approaching that 50% mark.  And McConnell hasn’t gained ground after his primary win as expected. Most outlets rate this as Leans or Likely Republican.

Louisiana – Tossup – Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) has a reputation for bringing in big bucks to Louisiana as well as being the most conservative Democrat in the Senate (rivaled by Joe Manchin of WV)  However, Louisiana is a blood red state and much of the minority population left after Katrina.  Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy is lackluster but has a slight edge in runoff polling.  Landrieu has big leads in the jungle primary polling but needs over 50% to win.  Landrieu is also not popular, but neither is anyone else in Louisiana.

Maine – Safe Republican – This seat will always be safe Republican so as long as its occupied by Sen. Susan Collins, the minute she retires it’s a blue seat.  Shenna Bellows is the Democrat’s sacrificial lamb who will no doubt fail at convincing Mainers that Collins is too conservative.  Collins is more popular with Democrats than she is with her own party.

Massachusetts – Safe Democratic – New Sen. Ed Markey (D) is heaving sighs of relief that former Sen. Scott Brown (R) is running in New Hampshire.  With no significant Republican opposition, it’s Markey for the win.

Michigan – Leans Democratic – Rep. Gary Peters (D) is the favorite over former Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R). Land surged for a short time, but has since faded out in this slightly blue state.  It could get more competitive and will likely be close, but Peters should pull out the win.

Minnesota – Safe Democratic – Funnyman Sen. Al Franken (D) should be endangered having won in 2008 by about 300 votes, but he has proved popular and effective and all the Republicans running are nobodies.

Mississippi – Likely Republican – Who knows what is happening in the Magnolia state? If the matchup remains as is with Sen. Thad Cochran (R) against former Rep. Travis Childers (D), Cochran will win.  But tea party whack job, Chris McDaniel can’t seem to imagine that he lost fair and square and is challenging the results.  If he can manage to dethrone Cochran, this will be a tossup in a deep red state because Childers is a strong Democratic candidate and McDaniel is a crybaby.

Montana – Likely Republican – Montana is not nearly as competitive as it could be.  Sen. John Walsh was recently appointed and he is trailing badly in polls to Rep. Steve Daines (R).  Still, Walsh will likely improve, but Montana is a Republican state that has not had a GOP senator in years.

Nebraska – Likely Republican – Republican Ben Sasse is the favorite purely because of the state’s leaning.  Democrat David Domina is an unknown.

New Hampshire – Likely Democratic – If you can’t win in one state, move to another, is the philosophy of former MA Sen. Scott Brown (R) who is challenge Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D). Brown was expected to make the race competitive, but he didn’t and succeeded in making himself look like a sore loser.

New Jersey – Safe Democratic – My home state where Sen. Cory Booker is well-liked.  Republican Jeff Bell is a nobody.

New Mexico – Safe Democratic – Sen. Tom Udall (D) is much safer than his cousin in Colorado.  Republican Allen Weh has little chance to win.

North Carolina – Tossup – I really want to rate this as Leans Democrat because Sen. Kay Hagan (D) surged when Speaker of the NC House Thom Tillis (R) led the NC House last summer.  This year, Tillis is taking it slow but state Republicans in NC are extremely unpopular and they nominated their leader for the Senate.  Libertarian Sean Haugh is also a factor that could pull away voted from Tillis.

Oklahoma Regular and Special – Safe Republican – It is the normal election year for the delusional Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) who is safe.  Sen. Tom Coburn (R) is resigning when his successor is elected.  That will likely be Rep. James Lankford (R)

Oregon – Safe Democratic – I know Sen. Jeff Merkley (D) won in 2008 with less than 50%, but I am baffled why Republicans think nobody Monica Wehby can win with her far-right positions in liberal Oregon.

Rhode Island – Safe Democratic – Sen. Jack Reed will win no matter who he Republican opponent is.

South Carolina Regular and Special – Safe Republican – GOP Sens. Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott will cruise to wins in November.  Nothing interesting here since Graham easily won his primary.

South Dakota – Likely Republican – This is the only state where Democrats didn’t get their preferred candidate when both Sen. Tim Johnson and former Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin passed.  They got stuck with Rick Weiland, a political nobody and new comer.  Weiland has been polling relatively competitively for a Democrat in South Dakota.  Frontrunner is former Gov. Mike Rounds (R).  The only way can lose to Weiland is if former Sen. Larry Pressler, who is running as an independent, takes a chunk out of Rounds’ voters.  Right no that is not happening to the degree Weiland needs it to.

Tennessee – Safe Republican – Sen. Lamar Alexander is the target of several nobody tea partiers, but he is likely to win with flying colors against them in the primary and against whatever nobody Democrat wins his or her party’s nomination.

Texas – Safe Republican – Sen. John Cornyn (R) could find himself as his party’s leader in the Senate if McConnell loses.  In that case, he will likely be the Minority leader since it is unlikely the GOP can take the Senate if they lose Kentucky.  Cornyn is safe against nobody David Alameel (D).

Virginia – Safe Democrat – Sen. Mark Warner (D) is extremely popular and former GOP Gov. Ed Gillespie is doing nothing to stop him.

West Virginia – Likely Republican – Rep. Shelley Moore Capito is likely going to be the first GOP senator from this red state since the 1950s.  Democratic WV Secretary of State Natalie Tennant is behind in the polls, but the word is she is going to surge any minute.  I’ve been hearing that for months.

Wyoming – Safe Republican – Since whatever shenanigans Liz Cheney was up to is over, Sen. Mike Enzi (R) is safe.

 

What it Means to me to be an American

Seeing as how yesterday was the Fourth of July, I thought it would be appropriate to share what it means to me to be an American.  For one, I consider myself very patriotic, but certainly not in the conventional sense.  I do not have to drape myself in gaudy American flag apparel to feel and show how American I am.  I don’t post pictures of giant bald eagles or call our nation ‘murica.  I don’t need tangible symbols.  Freedom and liberty are abstract terms and they are best left like that.  I feel free knowing that I can saunter out my front door and go anywhere I want without being questioned, harassed or arrested.  It is liberty when everyone who is not like me can do the same.

As a political liberal, I realize that what makes America so great is that it is not perfect and some nations do things better than we do.  As Americans, these imperfections make us strive to be perfect.  We will never be content as second best.  I do think the United States is the greatest country the Earth will ever see, but I don’t brag about it.  I criticize those boastful Americans because, to me, they seem unwilling to improve and see no need to do so, believing we are perfect.

There is no peak to America’s greatness.  We can always be better.  Not everyone in this country has the right to marry (yet) while throughout most of progressive Europe, everyone can.  That is just one instance where other countries outrank us.  But, as Americans, we fight against these injustices to rectify this.  And yes, there is a significantly large group of loud Americans fighting the other way.  But this shows pure American ideals.  In no other country on Earth are there so many voices on issues, even long after they are resolved.